Work/Technology 2050: Scenarios and Actions
Report on a three-year international study that produced three detailed scenarios, conducted 30 national workshops in 29 countries, identified hundreds of action distilled to 93 that were assessed by hundreds of futurists and related experts in over 50 countries.
Work/Technology 2050: Scenarios and Actions could be the broadest, deepest, long-range international assessment about what to do about the future impacts of future technology.
A pragmatic exploration of possible futures – choices and consequences – really exercised my imagination. — Vint Cerf, Internet Pioneer
This international long‑range study includes three detailed scenarios to 2050 and assessments of 93 actions. The actions are the results of 30 national workshops in 20 countries. The purpose of these workshops was to identify strategies to address the issues raised in the scenarios. These actions were assessed by five international surveys (one each for government and governance, business and labor, education and learning, arts and media, and the S&T communities) as to their feasibility to avoid the looming disasters forecast by others and how to change the world for the better.
Income gaps are widening, the concentration of wealth is increasing, jobless economic growth seems the new norm, and return on investment in capital and technology is usually better than in labor. As labor costs go up and AI and robot costs go down, manufacturing and service unemployment rates are expected to increase. So, what to do?
The Millennium Project reviewed over thirty “future of work” studies to find what questions were not asked and those that were answered inadequately. This formed the basis for a questionnaire (referred to as a Real-Time Delphi or RTD) to answer these questions. The results were used to create three draft scenarios to 2050 (alternative stories that connect the world in 2050 to the present with cause and effect links that illustrate decisions). Each scenario received a critical review by international panels of futurists and relevant experts selected by The Millennium Project’s Nodes around the world (these Nodes are groups of institutions and people that connect global and local perspectives and research). Each scenario is about ten pages full of rich details about plausible developments from today to 2050.